Donald Trump is now President of the United States of America, Commander In Chief of the worlds most powerful military, at the helm of the worlds largest economy, and all whilst maintaining the most confusing hair in history.

Who’s making ‘Ginger’ jokes now?

His inauguration speech was heavy on optimism and faith in the American people. It certainly sets a different tone to what we’ve seen in the past. A few point of interest for me:

Today’s ceremony, however, has very special meaning because today we are not merely transferring power from one administration to another – but transferring it from Washington DC and giving it back to you the people.

For too long a small group in our nation’s capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost.

Washington flourished but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered but the jobs left and the factories closed.

The establishment protected itself but not the citizens of our country.

Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. While they have celebrated there has been little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land.

That all changes starting right here and right now because this moment is your moment. It belongs to you. It belongs to everyone gathered here today and everyone watching all across America today.

A heady promise, but what does that look like in practical terms? It’s like his ‘Drain the swamp’ campaign promises. It’s a great slogan, but what practical steps will be taken to achieve that?

But there’s some very dangerous promises in the speech as well:

Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families.

Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every bone in my body and I will never ever let you down.

America will start winning again. America will start winning like never before. [emphasis added]

This is incredibly dangerous rhetoric. Not only is it economically ignorant and destructive, not only will it achieve the exact opposite of the prosperity he promises, but trade wars are often the first step towards real wars.

A quote attributed to Frederic Bastiat:

When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will.

Although the origin of the quote is uncertain, the accuracy is pretty spot on. And Trump may blunder his way into a shooting war as a consequence of starting a trade war, ‘for the American People’. Dangerous times.

And he couldn’t resist a dig at the Obamas and their negative talk about America:

We will no longer accept politicians who are always complaining but never doing anything about it.

The time for empty talk is over, now arrives the hour of action.

But action is only good if it’s moving in the right direction, so words aside, what can we actually expect from President Trump?

There’s been breathless commentary on all sides of the political spectrum about what exactly a Trump presidency ‘means’. This commentary has painted Trump as everything from the messianic to the murderous, and not a lot in between. Here’s my best attempt at a dispassionate look at what we can expect in the next 4 years, now that they’ve begun.

1. Economy: In some respects, Trump is going to be excellent for the US economy… not because his policies are good, in fact they’re terrible, but because confidence is going to jump up (and already has) and that’s going to make a massive difference to whether or not businesses invest in themselves, whether or not people are willing to take risks, and it’s going to lead to an improved economy… Unless Trump gets his way.See Trump thinks that restricting trade is going to help the US economy. He thinks that ‘balanced’ trade is more important than free trade, that spending massive amounts of US taxpayers’ money to ‘keep jobs in America’ is great policy, and that tariffs hurt outsiders rather than those inside his borders. He’s wrong on all those points. So while the US economy is going to enjoy 12 good months purely because of the confidence boost from Trumps rhetoric, what happens in years 2, 3, and 4 will depend on whether or not Trumps economic ideas become law, or whether law makers in the Senate and the House are willing to stand up to him and keep the borders open, the tariffs low or non-existent, and keep crony-capitalism to a minimum. (good luck on that one!) So I predict a good year for the US economy… followed by who-knows-what. Just watch and see whether Trump gets his way or not.
2. Foreign Relations / War: Contrary to lefty / progressive narratives, I actually think this is an area where Trump is going to do quite well. He’s a wheeler-dealer, a negotiator, someone who has made a fortune out of getting people to agree with or give in to him. He’s also not a warmonger like Hillary said she would be, and like Obama was. Hillary was on record that she would bomb Iran if given half a chance, and Obama invented a new kind of non-war called ‘Kinetic Military Action’ and made extensive use of Drone Strikes specially so he didn’t have to get the legislature’s permission to go kill people. Obama has killed more people than all the other Nobel Peace Prize winners combined!But Trump is unpredictable, which is a terrible thing in a leader and could trigger WWIII in a worst-case scenario, but has a few fringe benefits. The Chinese, Iranians, Russians, North Koreans, and anyone else who matters are going to think longer and harder about how they handle Trump than they had to about Obama, and that’s going to work in his favor. Overall I think we’re less likely to face WWIII in the next 4 years than we would have if Clinton had been President of the US, because Clinton as President would have continued her ‘legacy’ as Secretary of State, meaning more proxy wars with Russia, more CIA attempts at ‘regime change’, and sooner or later the Russians or Chinese would have taken the gloves off.However whilst WWIII is less likely, it remains a distinct possibility, depending on what mood Trump is in when he gets his ‘3am phone call’. That’s a scary thought.
3. Domestic Peace: The US has seen some pretty weird stuff become ‘normal’ in the last few years. Racial tensions are running high, in the words of one of my (black) American friends, it’s the “Worst I’ve ever seen it, and I lived through the 60s”. The drug war has set police departments against entire neighborhoods, trust in government is at an all time low, and citizen / militia groups have shown themselves willing to risk a shooting-war with the government over land-rights issues among others. Ever since Obama’s election the media narrative has been that ‘racist’ groups were ready to carry out acts of terrorism and a new civil war might begin. Well I agreed with part of that… that a new civil war might begin, but not from terrorist acts by white supremacy groups, but rather in reaction to ever more belligerent government actions.Thankfully we’ve reached the end of the Obama presidency without a full-blown shootin’ match breaking out, and I suspect that the chance of civil war under Trump is lower than it was under Obama, as much due to differences in how they’re perceived than differences in reality. Obama promised more government overreach and a ‘fundamental transformation’ of America… that put a lot of people on edge. Trump speaks of ‘American Greatness’ and appeals to the traditions of where the country has come from. That’s going to set a lot of minds at ease.The fact that Trumps policies are likely to be as bad as Obama’s in most areas, and worse in a few areas, makes no difference here. People who were ready to take arms at a moments notice if Obama’s promised ‘Fundamental Transformation’ came, will instead be focused on their business and work life, because ‘things are finally getting better’ (see point 1).That’s not to say there won’t be trouble. Progressive groups have shows themselves to be willing to resort to violence and incite people to riots and looting at a moment’s notice, we’ve seen that again in Washington just last night, and I don’t expect this to change any time soon.There are people who still believe (and will always believe) that Trump is ‘literally Hitler’ and so they will be watching for the first sign of anything that might possibly maybe lead at some point in the future to Trump being Hitler… and they will direct all of their murderous / violent / selfish / petulant energies against the nearest victim they can find (Police officer, random white person, symbols of ‘capitalism’) in a self-righteous fury as they ‘save America from Hitler’. The key difference here is that these people will be acting out of an unplanned and undirected venting of emotional energy, as compared to the kind of people who showed up to the Bundy Ranch stand off who were mostly very disciplined and serious minded people who showed up out of deeply held convictions. Hence there’s less likely to be a serious insurrection, and more likely to be isolated incidents of riots and looting.Bear in mind though, that Trump is very unpredictable (noticing a theme here?), and he certainly has an authoritarian / crony streak (that’s how he made his fortune, as a crony capitalist) and if he does a few things that rub the US heartland that voted him in the wrong way… all bets are off. Those are the people with the guns and the convictions, and can make a far bigger mess than any ‘Black lives matter’ or ‘Occupy my mum’s basement’ protest ever will.

   So I’ll score that as a minor improvement over the current situation.

4. Drug War: Bad news I’m afraid. You can forget an end to the drug war under Trump. He’s going to play long and hard to the republican base with a ‘tough on drugs’ message. Medical Marijuana may be legalized in more states one by one, and even some recreational marijuana, but if you were hoping that Trump would stop the DEA, FBI, and countless local police and sheriffs departments from kicking down doors, shooting first and asking questions later, you’ve got another thing coming. This of course has huge negative consequences, including massive financial waste, increased conflict between the governed and the government, ever-increasing militarization of police, and years of peoples lives wasted behind bars for no good reason. Having said that, this is how it’s been in the US since the 70s, so it’s not that things are going to get worse… just that they’re not getting better any time soon.
5. Military-Industrial Complex: Eisenhower had great foresight in his speech warning about the consequences of the Military Industrial Complex, and his words of warning ring true today. Watch the full speech here, and marvel at both the content, and the delivery. It’s sad that we no longer expect our politicians to be statesmen in this vein. Fast forward to today and there are massive companies whose entire income depends on governments buying weapons, and on wars in which to consume those weapons. This Military Industrial Complex has more lobbying power and money than pretty much any other interest group, and they’ve bought themselves tremendous influence.Sadly Trump is not likely to change this situation, with his enthusiasm to ‘Destroy ISIS once and for all‘. This is not in itself a bad aim, but it means continuing wars and foreign entanglements, and has the Military Industrial Complex rubbing its hands with glee at the spending this will require.
6. Liberty: Some people want to believe that Trump is going to be good for liberty in the US. Some want to think that a Trump presidency is going to herald a new era of freedom, a return to the American ideals of Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Sorry, but you’ve got another thing coming to you. You could argue that Trump will be better in this regard that Clinton would have been, and on that point I’d agree with you, but don’t expect the American people to be more free at the end of a Trump presidency than they are at the start, that’s pure fantasy.Whilst Trump is certainly making a lot of the right noises in this regard, and I think we’ll see some really good action in the first 6 months, possibly including a few radical reductions in regulations of various kinds, in the longer term he’s going to revert to his true nature…Trump believes that government can and should ‘fix’ things. Sure he talks a good game when it comes to ‘faith in the American people’ and all that crap, but when push comes to shove he’s already proved that he’ll just do the same old things that US presidents have been doing for decades… stick his grubby fingers into everything, spend money like it’s going out of fashion (and hey, give it another 5-10 and the US dollar almost certainly will be out of fashion!) and generally making life worse for everybody by driving up the cost of living and cost of production.
7. For Australia: What does a Trump presidency mean for Australia? Overall it’s a net gain in my opinion. We’re not going to be on the receiving end of any tariffs, in fact if anything we’re likely to be able to negotiate better trade and freedom of movement than we already have. As a bonus, China are less likely to keep causing trouble in the South China Sea which will be good for regional stability and trade. (although, don’t expect them to take a step backwards… but they may just pause for a few years!) The most significant consequence of that is that it means that by the time WWIII comes (probably more like 5-10 years away, not the 3-5 that it would have been under Clinton) the Chinese economy will be suffering (an inevitability at this point, they’ve over-cooked their economy like only communists can!) and people in Australia who say we should side with China instead of the US will have a hard time making their case.

History will be the judge, but standing here at the beginning of his 4 years (first 4, or only 4?) as President of the United States of America, I’m expecting a little bit of good stuff to happen, especially in his first year, but mixed in with a lot of head shaking and muttering of ‘What was he thinking?’ And as years 2, 3, and 4 roll around I expect the head-shaking to increase, and the good news to all but disappear.

I think Trump will be a better President than Hillary would have been, but the fact that it came down to a choice between those two tells a sad story indeed.

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