Finally someone has put numbers on something I and probably you, and certainly many others, have known for some time. Democracy is in decline.

There’s something of a natural cycle in life as generations pass by. Tough times breed tough people who work hard and make the world a better place… but they’re so successful at creating better times that their children grow up thinking that tough times are a thing of the past. Then their children grow up and think that prosperity is a given, and then soft times breed soft people, the work stops, and poverty and hardship comes around again.

There’s been a belief from some that the gains made in the 20th centrury, gains of prosperity, food security, health, freedom, and the like, are here to stay. There’s a view that humankind will never make the mistakes of the past again, and we’ll never go back to the ‘bad old days’ with the bad old ways that brought hunger, poverty, and death.

But good times lead to soft people…

A study has now been done to quantify leading indicators of the decline of democracy. And they confirm what we instinctively know. We’re now surrounded by soft people who have no understanding of where prosperity, freedom, wealth, or happiness come from. They’ve grown up surrounded by these things and assume that they’re a natural bounty requiring no work at all. And as a result their attitudes towards the things which have brought their prosperity, such as capitalism and representative government, is alarming indeed.

The first factor [we measured] was public support: How important do citizens think it is for their country to remain democratic? The second was public openness to nondemocratic forms of government, such as military rule. And the third factor was whether “antisystem parties and movements” — political parties and other major players whose core message is that the current system is illegitimate — were gaining support.

If support for democracy was falling while the other two measures were rising, the researchers marked that country “deconsolidating.” And they found that deconsolidation was the political equivalent of a low-grade fever that arrives the day before a full-blown case of the flu.

Now I’m the first to be skeptical of such ‘research’ unless some real-world cases can be seen, to demonstrate its validity… And in this case I have reason to be skeptical! After all I and this blog could very well be categorised as ‘anti system’, and yet I’m not exactly advocating for things that will bring poverty or suffering, or a decline to democratic process, so how good are these indicators really? Well the article goes on and proves its accuracy:

Venezuela, for instance, enjoyed the highest possible scores on Freedom House’s measures of political rights and democracy in the 1980s. But those democratic practices were not deeply rooted. During that apparent period of stability, Venezuela already scored as deconsolidating on the Mounk-Foa test.

Since then, Venezuelan democracy has declined significantly. In 1992, a faction of the Venezuelan military loyal to Hugo Chávez attempted a coup against the democratically elected government. Mr. Chávez was elected president in 1998 on a wave of populist support, and he immediately passed a new constitution that consolidated his power. His government cracked down on dissent, imprisoned political opponents and shredded the country’s economy with a series of ill-planned economic overhauls.

And readers of this blog will know very well how things are going in Venezuela today. And with the recent death of Fidel Castro we’ve seen just how clueless so many world leaders are about the atrocities, suffering, and death he brought to ‘his people’ in Cuba. Justin Trudeau utterly beclowned himself with his fawning comments, and was rightly smacked down on social media and elsewhere for giving such praise to the dead, and being so utterly insensitive to the living.

It is with deep sorrow that I learned today of the death of Cuba’s longest serving President. Fidel Castro was a larger than life leader who served his people for almost half a century. A legendary revolutionary and orator, Mr. Castro made significant improvements to the education and healthcare of his island nation. While a controversial figure, both Mr. Castro’s supporters and detractors recognized his tremendous dedication and love for the Cuban people who had a deep and lasting affection for “el Comandante”. I know my father was very proud to call him a friend and I had the opportunity to meet Fidel when my father passed away. It was also a real honour to meet his three sons and his brother President Raúl Castro during my recent visit to Cuba.

A murderous dictator responsible for 10s of 1,000s of deaths (no really, if you didn’t know that, do a little research) has passed away and been praised in glowing terms by the elected leader of one of the worlds most ‘free’ countries. Just let that sink in a little.

I understand the family connection and the personal affection that may be there (although that in itself tells a story…) but a little more awareness of the suffering inflicted upon so many, and a little more sensitivity to the plight of those still suffering, would both have been much more fitting from a world leader than the white-washing of Castro’s sins as simply ‘controversial’. The silver lining is that so many people, including many younger people, mocked him for his statement that it gives me at least a little hope for the future.

Also consider that we’ve just observed a US presidential election between a National Socialist (Trump – Although National Crony Capitalist might also be a suitable description), a Globalist Socialist (Hillary), with a borderline Communist trying to rain on the Hillary parade (Sanders). These are the options we’re giving ourselves to be the ‘Leader of the Free World’? Meanwhile we’re watching the European Union abandon what little pretense of democracy or representative government it once maintained, with Jean-Claude Juncker, EU Commission Chief saying:

Regarding referenda on EU membership, I think it is not wise to organise this kind of debate, not only because I might be concerned about the final result but because this will pile more controversy onto the huge number already present at the heart of the EU.

In other words, ‘please don’t let the people speak if I’m not likely to approve of their opinions’.

Now this isn’t a doomsday prediction, nor a warning of imminent demise. What I’m saying is that my generation and younger have never seen hard times. Not really. And we’re soft. We don’t understand what it takes to keep prosperity and freedom, and we’re losing it… no, check that, we’re trying to deliberately dismantle it bit by bit because we have absolutely no idea what we’re doing.

A huge education effort is needed, and soon, so people can understand why we’re living so well today, and what it takes to keep that going. I’m a huge optimist, and I think the future is going to be amazing and the kinds of things my grandchildren will take for granted are deep in the realms of science fiction for me. Technology is changing the world for the better each and every day… but human nature hasn’t changed. And if we succumb to our base natures of greed, envy, and the lust for power, and allow socialism to rise again around the world, then the future will start looking very gloomy indeed.

It’s not the end… but we can see it from here. And unless we change direction, as evidenced by a massive change in attitudes towards the role and legitimacy of government in our lives, there’s only one place we’re going to end up. And it ain’t pretty.

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