The Liberal Party have just made exactly the mistake that I’ve been warning against repeatedly here on the Topher project.

They’re trying to have a foot in each camp and nobody’s going to vote for a double-minded, weak-willed, have a bet each way kind of political party. The Liberals are under pressure from a fast rising one nation party who have consistently rejected not only net zero but emissions reductions altogether, including the Paris Agreement. And the Liberals, well, they’re watching what’s happening with One Nation and reform in the UK, not to mention Le Pen in France, the AfD in Germany, Meloni in Italy, and of course, Trump in the USA. And the Liberals are afraid that One Nation are going to catch that wave. So instead, the Liberal Party are trying to capture that energy themselves, the enormous social movement that is happening away from globalism, away from the climate change paranoia that comes with globalism.

But the Liberals, well, they’re doomed to fail if the best they’ve got is half measures. They’ve just come out and announced that they are walking away from net zero, but they plan to remain in the Paris Agreement, which is just net zero by another name and with a slightly different timeline. The Liberal Party are a house divided, and as Jesus said in the Gospels, a house divided cannot stand. Word on the street is that 17 current Federal Liberal Party MPs want to keep their net zero by 2050 commitment and 28 are in favor of dumping it. But that’s not the division that’s the actual problem. That’s not what’s going to scuttle their chances of a resurgence at the polls.

What’s destroying any chance that the Liberals have of enjoying a reform style resurgence is the fact that of the 28 in favor of dumping net zero,

too many are only in favor of dumping it by name. They’re scared to dump it in any practical or substantial way. And we know that because along with the announcement that they have dumped net zero came the announcement that the Liberal Party planned to stay in the Paris agreement which was just a precursor to net zero. And it amounts to net zero just by another name and with less explicit timelines and targets. And this yes but no each way bet is political poison in the current moment in history in which we find ourselves.

This is a moment where a jaded voting public are looking for leadership, for courage, and for politicians who understand the pain of the cost of living crisis and who will actually stand up for the little people in real tangible practical ways. I’d go so far as to say that with this announcement, the Liberal Party have destroyed utterly any chance that they had at a comeback in the next election, unless they do something very drastic in the next year to 18 months. In this video, I’m going to take you through the key points of the Paris agreement and why it is just net zero with a bit of extra lube. And I’m going to lay out a strategy from here which might and I must emphasize only might save the Liberal Party from themselves. Then I’m going to finish with what I realistically think will actually happen between now and the next election.

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All right, let’s check out the Paris agreement to see what it is that the Liberal Party are not rejecting.

It’s all well and good to reject net zero by name, but what exactly do they plan to still do under the Paris Agreement? Well, in article two of the Paris Agreement, they state the aim of holding global temperatures to below 2° C above pre-industrial levels. But the premise of this aim is that we can control the globe’s temperature by controlling CO2 levels in the atmosphere, which is nonsense given that CO2 follows temperature change thanks to the oceans releasing CO2 as they warm and absorbing it as they cool.

The Paris agreement that the Liberal Party are refusing to walk away from commits the Liberal Party to pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C, which is now ludicrous because according to the official temperature data, and yes, yes, I I know, but that’s what they will use. According to the official data, the Earth’s temperature has already risen about 1.1° C since the 1850 to 1900 period that they use as their reference period. And that means that the 1.5° target will be missed by a wide margin given that the global CO2 emissions continue to rise with no end in sight as billions of people are right now emerging out of poverty and starting to consume more energy. And that’s not according to me. That’s according to Antonio Gutierrez, Secretary General of the UN, who says it is now inevitable that the 1.5° target will be missed.

So, the Liberal Party by staying in the Paris agreement are committing themselves to a fool’s errand to pursue all efforts to achieve something that is now inevitable not to be achieved. Under article three of the Paris Agreement, the Liberal Party are committing themselves to make ambitious efforts to reduce Australia’s CO2 emissions, which means that whether they call it net zero or call it Bambi’s unicorn rainbow happiness project, the result is the same. We’re screwed because energy prices are going to continue rising. Article six demands that the Liberal Party promote only sustainable development, which precludes things like coal and gas from being used to fix our fast failing energy grid.

And under Article 9, the Liberal Party are committing to pay reparations from Australian taxpayers because we are a developed country to assist developing countries to mitigate and adapt to changes in the Earth’s climate. So, not only are we going to be footing our own insane bill, we’re going to be footing everyone else’s bill as well. I could go on, but you get the idea. The Liberal Party are trying to have their cake and eat it, too. They think that rejecting net zero in name only will give them a sugar rush of a bounce in the polls like what reform are enjoying in the UK. But that’s delusional.

No one is fooled by this. And the danger, as I laid out in detail in Topher project episode 235, which was all about the Nationals dumping net zero but still committing to CO2 emissions reductions, the danger is that voters are going to see right through it. Therefore, the Liberal Party won’t get a bounce in the polls. They’ll be absolutely destroyed at the next election and then that will be used as proof that it was a mistake to reject net zero in the first place. The truth is that voters simply aren’t as stupid as these politicians think we are.

We’re looking for courage, for clarity of vision, for a party that will stand up for us against the emissions reductions madness that has done so much harm to our standard of living.

It’s eroded our manufacturing. It’s driven our cost of living to insane levels and left many people feeling like they don’t even have a future here in Australia anymore. So that’s what’s happened. Now, what should the good Liberal Party MPs do about it? Now, and to be clear, there are some good Liberal Party MPs, only a few, but there are some who really do understand the scale of the problem and they recognize that if they’re going to catch this lightning in a bottle, this moment in history, and ride a wave like what reform are doing in the UK, then they need to abandon CO2 emissions reductions targets entirely.

But as of right now, there’s not enough of them yet. So, from here, I firmly believe that the Liberal Party under Sussan Ley will continue to sink in the polls. All they’ve done now is confirm in the minds of many of their long-term former supporters that they are in fact a lost cause and One Nation will be the primary beneficiaries. They will continue to rise perhaps even faster than before. Now, the next federal election could in theory be called at any time, but it doesn’t have to happen until mid 2028. So, in practical terms, the next federal election is probably 2 years away.

And that gives the Liberal Party some time to find their courage and to do what’s needed, which begs the question, what’s needed? Well, step one, replace Sussan Ley. Now, this is tricky because if they roll her too soon, then they won’t enjoy the bounce that a new leader usually brings in the polls when they need it. And when they need it is at the next election, which could still be 2 years away. So, they need to wait. But then again, the longer they wait, the worse things are going to get. Sussan Ley is now even less popular than Peter Dutton was at the last disastrous federal election. She is setting new record lows for the Liberal Party primary vote.

So, the Liberals, well, they need to wait a while before they replace her as leader, but they also need to somehow limit the damage in the meantime. But step one, sooner or later, they are going to have to replace Sussan Ley. Step two, well, the new party leader needs to be someone who is credible when they then dump the Paris agreement and abandon all emissions reductions targets, which rules out most of the options in the lower house because, well, most Liberal Party MPs have been supporters of net zero by 2050 at some point in their political careers. Now, that’s the policy that the Liberal Party took to their recent electoral shellacking.

Now, probably Andrew Hasty may well be the only person in the lower house who has leadership credibility and is clean. He’s never publicly supported any net zero policies, and he’s been one of its more consistent critics in the lower house, even when it was Liberal Party policy. And third, with a new leader and with the total rejection of any and all emissions reductions targets, the Liberal Party need to base their next election campaign on an unashamed pro-Australia platform focusing on cheap, reliable energy, national independence in our energy sector, especially including petrol and diesel reserves and supplies. a commitment to making Australia a viable place for energy intensive industries including metals and manufacturing as well as tech and data centers and everything else in between and to never ever apologize for putting the interests of Australians first.

If they do all of that and they do it well, then and only then might they be able to capture the massive social movement that we’re seeing unfold all over the world. And maybe, just maybe, they could see results like what reform are seeing in the UK. But honestly, as nice as that would be, I have grave doubts about the Liberal Party’s ability to do what’s needed and to do it with the moral clarity and courage needed for them to come back from where they are as a party. They’re just too compromised. They’ve been too divided. And for too long, they’ve been the party of Labor Light. and I fear that it just might not be credible for them to walk away from all their emissions targets now.

So, my more realistic expectation of what’s likely to happen here is that they will go to the next election with a different leader.

Sussan Ley is untenable at this point. It really is just a matter of time before she gets replaced. So they will change leader, but I suspect they’ll still be hamstrung by these foot in both camps compromises. And as a result, we will see One Nation continue to rise instead. But, and I hate to say this, I don’t think One Nation are going to rise fast enough to replace the Liberal Party by the next election, which is likely to result in the Labour Party winning again in 2027 or 2028, whenever that election is finally called, which means that Australia will be condemned to another 3 or so years of the current Albanese madness.

And that well, that will then be used by all the political pundits as proof that rejecting net zero was a terrible mistake. That’s the reason they failed at the election is because they rejected net zero. And that of course is a lie. It’s the Liberal party’s lack of courage and clarity and their merely mouthed each way bet. That’s what’s going to cost them. But here’s the silver lining. If that happens and we do end up with another Albanese government at the next election, then I suspect that by 2030 or 2031, which is roughly when the following election will happen, the pain will be so great and our emissions reductions here in Australia will be so obviously futile as global emissions continue to rise.

And I’m not just talking about China and India and Africa. There’s a lot of other smaller countries which single-handedly still dwarf Australia. For example, Indonesia. They’ve increased their use of coal by way more than Australia has reduced ours. And that’s happening all over the world in all kinds of countries. So by 2030 or 31, when the next election happens, the people of Australia might finally be ready to break the duopoly entirely. And in that scenario, it may well be one nation that enjoys a reform style surge in Australia. But if that happens, the blame will be laid on the Liberals rejecting net zero.

Mmm. The truth is that the blame lies squarely at the feet of the Liberal party who lacked the courage to seize this moment. And they tried to yet again half-ass their way into government. I wish I had a better assessment. I had better news for you, but I can’t see it any other way. At least not right now. The Liberal Party have a narrow pathway to victory that requires from them a level of courage, vision, and unity that I just don’t think they have in them. And if they fail, if they won’t actually truly abandon all of this CO2 paranoia madness and put Australia first, well, then it will be up to us, the voters, to find and support a party that will.

My name’s Topher Field. This is the Topher project and I help busy people like you to make sense of the nonsense to cut through the crap and keep up with the world as it changes around us. I’m 100% viewer supported. So if you appreciate what I’m doing here at the Topher project, then please support my work by buying me a coffee via the button at topherfield.net. And if you like my videos, then you’re going to love my books, my DVDs, and all the merch, which you’ll find at goodpeoplebreakbadlaws.com. And don’t forget, we are discontinuing five of our designs very, very soon. So get in quick while stocks last.

Thank you so much for watching to the end. The algorithm loves you and so do I. Please like, comment, and let me know how do you think this is going to play out. Is there some other scenario that I’ve missed perhaps?

And as always, think free.